Saving the Future

The research behind the program was conducted by Art Rolnick, senior vice president and director of research at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, and Rob Grunewald, regional economic analyst at the Minneapolis Fed. Rolnick, who began his research into early-childhood development five years ago when he joined the board of Ready 4 K, points to studies showing that quality early-education programs prepare children for learning, which makes them more likely to perform at grade level and graduate from high school. They’re also less likely to commit a felony or rely on social services—and more likely to get and keep a job with health insurance and other benefits.

Although the aim of the MELF scholarship is to give at-risk kids a better chance to succeed in school, proponents don’t want it looked upon as a feel-good social program. They prefer that it be seen as an economic initiative that aims to create maximum future work force participation.

“The bottom line,” says MELF Executive Director Duane Benson, a former legislator and a past executive director of the Minnesota Business Partnership, “is that we more than likely don’t have the luxury to have many throwaways any more.”

Unready for School—and Work

According to Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development statistics, transportation, education, real estate, truck transportation, and mining industries will be hit especially hard by the work force shortage, since they have the some of the highest percentage of employees 55 and over. In October, Governor Tim Pawlenty told state agencies to conduct planning studies in anticipation of future work force shortages. The number of state-government workers retiring annually has increased 32 percent over the last five years; during the next 10 years, 39 percent of state employees will turn 61, the average retirement age for state workers.

But who will replace those retirees?

This issue isn’t just a local concern. A recent report from the San Jose, California– based National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education says that the nation will see a drop in the average level of education and per capita income over the next two decades, “unless states do a better job of raising the education level of all racial/ethnic groups.” The number of minority workers—many of them immigrants—is projected to double from 18 to 37 percent from 1980 to 2020. In Minnesota, the nonwhite and Hispanic population is expected to make up 18 percent of the working population in 2030, compared to 10 percent now. Immigrants are predicted to account for a one-third increase in workers over the next 30 years.

Going back to the high school graduation rate: According to the Minnesota Department of Education, only 67 percent of kids for whom English is a second language graduated from high school in 2004, compared to 93 percent of native-born caucasians. (Data for 2005 are still being tabulated.) That same year, just 64 percent of black students and 55 percent of Hispanic students graduated. In fact, Minnesota has one of the lowest graduation rates for Hispanic high-school kids in the country.

Benson believes that the labor shortage is already here—and that it will get worse as an increasing number of kids have trouble simply learning how to learn. “More and more [employers] are looking for people who can just learn, and they will do the training,” Benson says. “But they have to have that better fundamental raw product—for want of better words—come in the door.”