Shapes of Things to Come?

Somebody could conclude, looking at VASC’s chart, that it’s just range trading—oscillating between two prices. What makes you think it’s going to break out here? Are there volume indicators and other technical factors that would support that view? It’s done this before, where it makes kind of a nice move and then falls back.

Dvorak: I see what you’re saying here. But what I’m seeing is the stock has been ‘range stuck.’ It’s had like a $6–$11 range and every year it’s a lower low and a lower high—and then this year is a different story. It’s a higher high and a higher low, and that really defines the trend.

A lot of people have given up on Eden Prairie–based ADC (Nasdaq: ADCT). But its chart says something positive to you.

Dvorak: This area in telecom has really been in a bad way for about a decade now. One of the things I see on ADC is that if you draw a trend line back to 2000, the stock right now is at $8, and it’s right on that downtrend. If it goes any higher, it’s going to break that downtrend, and you’re going to have an uptrend. The breakout level is at about $8.60, and if the stock gets to $9 a share, it breaks the long-term downtrend—and I think you’ve got a new story here.

Is that also the case with Eden Prairie med-tech company SurModics?

Dvorak: SurModics (Nasdaq: SRDX) is more of what I would call a down-and-out value play. If you look at the long-term chart on SurModics, you can see that there’s a line that traces out the lows pretty well, and you have a mini-capitulation to $15 recently. And I think SurModics has found big support in these middle-teen prices and will find it here again. I’m sort of taking a contrary view here, but I think SurModics is done going down. It’s time for a reversal.

Then there’s Eden Prairie–headquartered sensors and nanotech firm NVE Corporation (Nasdaq: NVEC). It made a move back up into the $60s, but has fallen back. What makes you think it could go higher? 

Dvorak: NVE is a really good-looking, longer-term situation. This is one I’ve been following for a few years now. What I’m seeing here is a giant base, a big opportunity, and I think maybe, in the short term, NVE might have a little downside here. But I really feel positive about NVEC long-term.