Thinking Ahead

You don’t have to read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire to get the picture. Since civilization began, empires in a never-ending succession have each evolved into the most powerful, influential force in the world. And then, sometimes quickly, sometimes gradually, they’ve slipped from their heights to a lesser and lesser position, until one day their citizens awoke to find their days of being king of the hill were over. And it came as a shock, because they never quite realized it was happening.

I believe it’s happening to America—right now. Heaven knows, we don’t want to believe it or admit it, and most of us don’t even want to discuss it. But it’s happening anyway, and if history is a trustworthy guide, there’s nothing we can do to stop America’s inevitable slide from richest, most powerful country in the world, to a lesser position on the scale. It may take a handful or a couple of hundred years, but the history of the world says it’s going to happen.

We can't endlessly postpone or severely compromise programs, or dump horrendous debt on our grandchildren, because we don't have the guts or the fortitude to make any sacrifices ourselves.

But hey, the news isn’t all bad. For the most part, former number-ones have done just fine even after they received and digested their eviction notices. Rome, Britain, Spain, China, and the Ottoman Empire gang have learned to live and succeed in secondary roles with substantial success. Indeed, China is working its way back for another shot at the title. And besides, it takes a whole lot of pressure off once you’re no longer top dog, with all the responsibilities that go along with the title. We’ll no longer have to attempt to establish democracies throughout the Middle East, or push China to pay its workers more, or push for social reforms in countries whose current social standards are a hundred years behind ours. Getting on a par with Britain and Germany and France and Russia and Japan might not be a bad deal, because it would permit us to rethink and reprioritize our agenda.

It’s not very likely the New York Times or political commentator William Kristol will announce next Tuesday that as of 3:25 p.m. the previous day, the United States was no longer the number-one power in the world. We’ll come to learn of it over a long period of time as statistics and circumstances mount up to the point that even the most confirmed doubters will grudgingly accept it.