It would be a daunting job to make sense out of several paradoxes in this year’s What Business Thinks survey unless a major split in opinion is noted first: While Minnesota business leaders are economically optimistic, they’re politically grouchy.
Respondents express this ambivalence in several ways, particularly in their answers to two questions: “Generally speaking, would you say Minnesota is going in the right direction, or in the wrong direction?” And, “In the next 12 months, do you think Minnesota’s economy will get better, stay the same, or get worse?”
The issue businesses seem least concerned about? Keeping pro sports teams in the state, with 26 percent terming it unimportant.
To the first question, 69 percent say the state is indeed going in the right direction. That’s a strong thumbs-up. But the most telling point to be made is that the pessimistic minority view is the highest it has been—31 percent—over the past decade. Markedly so: In 2000, for instance, only 14 percent said Minnesota was headed in the wrong direction.
Findings like these might suggest that business leaders are more worried now about Minnesota’s economic prospects compared to how they saw things five years ago, when the nation was on the cusp of a recession. But exactly the opposite is true: 36 percent of respondents expect the state’s economy to improve over the next period, compared to only 19 percent who held a similarly sunny view in 2000.
Likewise, 45 percent of respondents report that their company’s profits were higher during the past 12 months compared to the year before. And 52 percent predict that their profits will be higher in the coming 12 months. Again, all of this is the case even though respondents in 2005 are more than twice as likely as their counterparts in 2000 to see Minnesota as a whole heading south.
What might explain such different perceptions between economic and broader realms? A leading answer would seem to be heightened political discontent. An especially feisty and protracted 2005 legislative session had much to do with this displeasure, though by no means has it been the only political feature in recent years to get people steamed inside and out.
Survey participants, for example, were asked: “How would you evaluate the performance of the following [political players] in promoting an agenda that is good for business?” Eighteen percent describe Governor Tim Pawlenty’s performance as “excellent,” with 40 percent rating it “good.” The governor and his supporters surely would prefer the “excellent” part to be higher, but a combined “excellent-good” of 58 percent is certainly respectable.
