Crisis as Change Agent

Addiction counselors use a common analogy to demonstrate how alcoholism is a progressive disease. They say that if you put a frog into a pan of boiling water, it will jump out faster than you can say “leap frog!” However, if you put a frog into a pan of room-temperature water and then slowly turn up the heat, the frog will stay in the water and will not attempt to escape, even while it is being boiled alive.

Why? Because the frog does not notice the gradual change in temperature. The point is that addictive behaviors start out casually, with minor unacceptable behavior. Over time, the behavior grows more and more out of control, yet it is still accepted and becomes the “new normal.” Often, it takes a major crisis, such as spending time in jail or losing a spouse, before the addict will attempt to change his or her ways.

But to some extent, isn’t that the same for all of us, not just addicts?

Human Nature to Avoid Change

As a country, it has taken a major recession to force changes in our behavior. For instance, it doesn’t take an IQ of 140 to realize that for years the U.S. auto industry was offering gas-guzzling and emissions-spewing vehicles that were not competitively priced. We went along for years with complacency—even though we knew that General Motors couldn’t last forever with things the way they were.

Despite many minor turnaround plans under the old management regime, nothing substantial changed until GM’s major cash crisis last year that put its fate into the hands of the government. Now GM has new leadership under the watchful eye of an “auto czar” and is implementing a “reinvention plan” so that it might be a profitable, competitive company once again. Why did it take a crisis to make those changes?

Another example is health care spending and funding. According to Medicare, national health expenditures have grown from $666 billion in 1990, to $1.4 trillion in 2000, to $2.4 trillion in 2008, significantly outpacing average annual growth in the overall economy. If this growth continues, national health expenditures will reach $4.4 trillion by the year 2018 and make up one-fifth of our gross domestic product. Medicare is projected to be bankrupt by 2017, along with many more small businesses and families who can’t afford health insurance.

This problem is now a national crisis that is consuming the attention of our president, Congress, and most Americans. Yet haven’t we known for years that health care spending was out of control?